ندى الحناوي تكتب: شطرنج الشرق الأوسط.. رقصة التوازن على حافة الهاوية
في الشرق الأوسط، لا تُدار الصراعات بالصدفة، بل بحسابات دقيقة تشبه إلى حد بعيد مباراة شطرنج طويلة النفس. كل طرف يُحرك قطعه بحذر، يختبر ردود الأفعال، ويتجنب – قدر الإمكان – السقوط في فخ مواجهة شاملة قد تُشعل المنطقة بأسرها. وبين التصعيد والتهدئة، تبدو العواصم الإقليمية والدولية وكأنها ترقص على حافة الهاوية.
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شهدت الفترة الأخيرة تطورًا لافتًا في مسار المواجهة بين طهران وتل أبيب، بعدما ردّت إيران بشكل مباشر على قصف استهدف قنصليتها في دمشق، أعقبه رد إسرائيلي محدود داخل الأراضي الإيرانية. هذا التبادل كسر نمط “حروب الظل” التي كانت تُدار عبر وكلاء وأذرع إقليمية، لينقل الصراع إلى مستوى أكثر صراحة وخطورة.
تكمن خطورة هذا التحول في أنه يفتح الباب أمام احتمالات تصعيد أوسع، ويضع الدول العربية أمام تحدٍ صعب، إذ تراقب المشهد بقلق خشية انزلاق المنطقة إلى حرب إقليمية مفتوحة تتجاوز حدود الاشتباك التقليدي.
جمود الاتفاق النووي… وقلق متصاعد
لا يزال الاتفاق النووي الإيراني، المعروف باسم الاتفاق النووي الإيراني (JCPOA)، يراوح مكانه وسط تعثر المفاوضات بين طهران والقوى الكبرى، وفي مقدمتها الولايات المتحدة. هذا الجمود يفاقم المخاوف بشأن مستقبل البرنامج النووي الإيراني، وتأثيره المحتمل على توازنات القوى في المنطقة.
إسرائيل وعدد من الدول العربية تعتبر أن أي تقدم غير منضبط في البرنامج النووي الإيراني يمثل تهديدًا مباشرًا لأمنها القومي، ما يعمّق فجوة الثقة ويُعقّد فرص التوصل إلى تسوية دبلوماسية شاملة.
واشنطن بين الردع وتجنب الحرب
تجد الولايات المتحدة نفسها في موقع بالغ الحساسية؛ فهي مطالبة بدعم حليفتها إسرائيل، وفي الوقت ذاته تسعى لتجنب التورط في صراع إقليمي واسع. التحركات الأمريكية الأخيرة عكست هذا التوازن الدقيق بين استعراض القوة لردع الخصوم، وبين الانخراط في مسارات دبلوماسية لاحتواء التصعيد.
غير أن هذا النهج يُفسَّر أحيانًا في المنطقة على أنه تذبذب في الموقف، ما يثير تساؤلات لدى بعض الحلفاء حول مدى استعداد واشنطن للتدخل المباشر إذا خرجت الأمور عن السيطرة.
حرب غزة… حجر الأساس في معادلة التوتر
أعادت الحرب في قطاع غزة رسم خريطة التفاعلات الإقليمية، ورفعت منسوب الاستقطاب السياسي والأمني. لم يعد الصراع محصورًا داخل حدود القطاع، بل بات يؤثر في علاقات إسرائيل مع عدد من الدول العربية، لا سيما تلك التي كانت تسير في مسار التطبيع.
كما غذّت الحرب حالة التوتر بين إيران وحلفائها من جهة، وإسرائيل وحلفائها من جهة أخرى، لتصبح غزة نقطة ارتكاز في شبكة أوسع من التحالفات والصراعات المتشابكة.
الدول العربية… بين التهدئة وإعادة التموضع
في خضم هذه التطورات، تسعى عدة دول عربية، خاصة في الخليج، إلى خفض التصعيد والتركيز على أولويات التنمية والاستقرار الاقتصادي، مع الحفاظ على قنوات اتصال مفتوحة مع مختلف الأطراف. في المقابل، تعمل دول أخرى على تعزيز تحالفاتها الأمنية لمواجهة ما تعتبره تهديدات مباشرة.
هذا التباين في المواقف يعكس تعقيد المشهد العربي ذاته، ويؤثر على قدرة المنطقة في بلورة موقف موحد أو صياغة مبادرات إقليمية شاملة للتهدئة.
المشهد الراهن يؤكد أن الشرق الأوسط يقف عند مفترق طرق حاسم. تحرك واحد غير محسوب قد يُشعل مواجهة واسعة، بينما قد يفتح مسار دبلوماسي جاد الباب أمام تهدئة طويلة الأمد.
ومن قلب مصر، يبقى الأمل معقودًا على أن تنتصر لغة العقل والحوار، حفاظًا على أمن واستقرار شعوب المنطقة، التي دفعت كلفة باهظة من جراء صراعات لا تنتهي.
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