تترقب الأسواق المصرية إعلان البنك المركزي المصري اليوم الخميس 25 ديسمبر 2025، قرار أسعار الفائدة، وسط توقعات متباينة من الخبراء والمحللين الاقتصاديين.
وتوقع بعض الخبراء خفض أسعار الفائدة بمقدار نحو 0.5% إلى 1% لدعم النشاط الاقتصادي وتشجيع الاستثمار، خاصة بعد تحسن مؤشرات التضخم نسبيًا خلال الفترة الأخيرة. وقال بعض المحللين إن هذا الخفض يأتي في إطار سياسة التيسير النقدي التي يسعى البنك المركزي لاستمرارها لتعزيز السيولة في السوق وتحفيز النمو الاقتصادي.
في المقابل، يرى خبراء مصرفيون آخرون أن تثبيت الفائدة قد يكون الخيار الأقرب، بالنظر إلى استمرار الضغوط التضخمية الأساسية، وحرص البنك المركزي على الحفاظ على استقرار أسعار العائد وجاذبية أدوات الودائع المصرفية. ولفت هؤلاء إلى أن أي خفض محتمل قد يكون محدودًا إذا اختارت لجنة السياسة النقدية الحفاظ على توازن الاستقرار المالي والاقتصادي.
ومع ترقب القرار الرسمي اليوم، يتوقع مراقبون أن يشهد السوق حركة ملحوظة فور إعلان البنك المركزي، سواء في أسعار الفائدة أو في مؤشرات الاستثمار والودائع المصرفية.
الخلاصة:
والسيناريو المحتمل الأقوى: خفض الفائدة بنسبة تتراوح بين 0.5% و1%.
السيناريو الآخر المحتمل: تثبيت الفائدة أو خفض محدود جدًا لضمان استقرار الأسعار.
البنك المركزي سيعلن رسميًا قراره خلال ساعات، وما يشغل السوق الآن هو حجم الخفض إذا قررت لجنة السياسة النقدية السير في هذا الاتجاه.
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